Saturday, April 26, 2008

Manufacturing as % of GDP: U.S./World



This chart is one tool to measure U.S. manufacturing competitiveness, and also the valuation of the dollar. This show that U.S. manufacturing is losing competitiveness, and the dollar should therefore be devalued.

It's a simple calculation. Calculate manufacturing as a % of GDP for the U.S. and the World. The chart is a ratio between the two.

For example, if manufacturing as a % of GDP is 16 % for the U.S. , and 20 % for the world, the ratio would be .80

The last sharp decline happened just before the Plaza Accord.

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Source: United Nations Statistical Division

Original Post : 1

% of World GDP, By Country or Region




This chart illustrates that the rise of "BRIC" is really more about the rise of China. But that rise has come more at the expense of Japan than anyone else.

I personally believe that Washington is pushing the BRIC concept, and the G20 in general, as a strategic counterbalance to Europe. The Euro represents the only real currency threat to the dollar at the moment.

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Source: United Nations Statistical Division - National Accounts
Spreadsheet: 1

Average Hourly Earnings

Percent of U.S. Corporate Profits from " Rest of World"



The U.S. consumer, and therefore worker, seems to be becoming less and less important for U.S. based companies.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Spheres of Influence Maps (Historical)

China, 1900



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Africa, 1913



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Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Thomas Friedman

“The hidden hand of the market will never work without a hidden fist. McDonald’s cannot flourish without McDonnell Douglas, the designer of the U.S. Air Force F-15. And the hidden fist that keeps the world safe for Silicon Valley’s technologies to flourish is called the U.S. Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.”

from: The Lexus and the Olive Tree

Monday, March 3, 2008

Various Prognostications and Predictions

Coming soon..with a grain of salt.

Saturday, February 9, 2008

Conservatories, Orchestras and Music Departments

Here in the U.S., one has to wonder about the future of music schools and conservatories with tuition rates of $20,000 a year, when the available jobs are dwindling. Many orchestras are in a severe crisis now, with large deficits and no apparent way to make them up. And orchestras are traditionally the largest source of employment in the private sector for classical musicians. The decline of orchestral in the U.S. has to eventually impact opportunities for musicians in the education system. Yet, people with positions of authority seem pretty much oblivious.

This is not just restricted to classical music. One could throw in jazz, as well, where opportunities are even more scarce. It's sad to see people who regularly played with Coltrane and Miles Davis living in rent-by-the month hotels as they struggle with difficulties of age. Yet I know such people. We are just throwing away our history and cultural legacy.

So our music schools have the standard jazz studies department, while private sector opportunities might pay $50 a night. Who goes into music fields such as these, when the opportunities to make money are so limited ? More and more it's exclusively children of the rich, who know they will be taken care of it things don't work out in music. But you're not going to get much vitality in an art that way.

Musicians don't go into the field to get rich, but one has to survive. And the field is demanding, and requires one' full time to improve and succeed. You simply can not be a world class musician and have a 'day job'. This can apply to any segment of music, not just the above mentioned categories of classical and jazz. As economies decline, so to , do the arts. People feel the pinch and have to survive, even if it means limiting their artistic pursuits.

Anything that limits the potential income of artists is going to limit the full flowering of a societies artistic potential. Those who celebrate their ability to get free music via the internet , or sharing, is pretty much destroying another economic base. Though there are of course success stories, the general drift in the music field over the last decades has been toward less - less live music opportunities and less money through recordings (with or without evil record companies). Everything can not be about promotion - giving something away for free for a future reward. There eventually has to be a pay off. Bills have to be paid, teeth have to be fixed. If musicians can not get their teeth fixed by playing music, they will move to other fields and a whole lot interesting ideas will never be heard.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Montek Ahluwalia

"Confidence grows at the rate that a coconut tree grows, and it falls at the rate a coconut falls."

Davos, 2009

Cecil Rhodes

"We must find new lands from which we can easily obtain raw materials and at the same time exploit the cheap slave labor that is available from the natives of the colonies. The colonies would also provide a dumping ground for the surplus goods produced in our factories."
Raw imperialism is illuminating in its straight forwardness.

Will Rogers

“It's almost worth the Great Depression to learn how little our big men know.”

Andrew Mellon

Former Secretary of Treasury, on the eve of the Great Depression (1929):
"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate … It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."
How did that work out ?