Tuesday, May 26, 2009

The Shadow CIA

Stratfor, founded by George Friedman, was given the moniker of the 'Shadow CIA' by Barron's a few years ago. Its website has testimonials from retired U.S military brass, and Friedman has briefed at organizations such as the Rand Corporation, as well as "senior commanders in all armed services". (1)

Because of these relationships, Stratfor reflects aspects of U.S. geopolitical strategy, and is interesting for that reason alone. Friedman often points out that economics is under the umbrella of geopolitics. As such, economic predictions need to be viewed within the prisms of military power, demographics, and national interests.

Some thoughts by Friedman on the "The Next 100 Years" (his recent book) can be read here, or seen here.

Summarized, they include:

1-The power of the United States will only grow during the next 100 years, due to its geographic position as the center of world trade, and ability to control international trade through its Navy.

2- Given the strategic importance of North America, and a host of other reasons, Mexico - at the end of this century - will be in a position to disrupt U.S. world dominance.

3- The population explosion is coming to an end, and with it, many patterns of debate about economic growth, immigration, and environmental degradation.

4- China will fragment or turn inwards because of rising inequality between the coastal and interior regions, repeating a historical pattern.


Note: Somewhat obviously, mentioning another person or companies' work does not mean one agrees with their philosophies or conclusions. It is just another source of information.

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