U.S. and China in the South China Sea

As I wrote recently, South East Asia is becoming an increasingly contested sphere of influence between U.S. and Chinese interests. Recent naval disputes in the South China Sea point to this.

Chinese ships surrounded and harassed a Navy mapping ship in international waters off China, at one point coming within 25 feet of the American boat and strewing debris in its path, the Defense Department said Monday. The Obama administration said it would continue naval operations in the South China Sea, most of which China considers its territory, and protested to China about what it called reckless behavior that endangered lives.

The U.S. ship was mapping the ocean floor in the area, apparently to improve the U.S. Navy's ability to track the Chinese nuclear submarine fleet, based on nearby Hainan Island.

Other incidents are noted :

_On Wednesday, a Chinese Bureau of Fisheries Patrol vessel used a high-intensity spotlight to illuminate the Victorious, an ocean surveillance ship, as it operated in the Yellow Sea, about 125 nautical miles from China's coast, the Pentagon said. The next day, a Chinese Y-12 maritime surveillance aircraft conducted 12 fly-bys of Victorious at an altitude of about 400 feet and a range of 500 yards.

_On Thursday, a Chinese frigate approached USNS Impeccable without warning and crossed its bow at a range of approximately 100 yards, the Pentagon said. This was followed less than two hours later by a Chinese Y-12 aircraft conducting 11 fly-bys of Impeccable at an altitude of 600 feet and a range from 100-300 feet.

_On Saturday, a Chinese intelligence collection ship challenged Impeccable over bridge-to-bridge radio, calling her operations illegal and directing Impeccable to leave the area or "suffer the consequences."

It seems clear, given the economic trajectory of the last decade, that the U.S. oligarchy now regards China as a leading threat to their dominance in the world. Because of this, military tensions between the two countries are set to increase. Without being dramatic, there are many scenarios in which this could lead to military conflict, either directly, or by proxy.
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China responds, via the NYT

China lashed out at the United States on Tuesday, blaming a U.S. Navy ship for violating international law during a tense confrontation near a Chinese submarine base.

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More analysis from the UK Times.