Monday, April 6, 2009

The Green Shoots of Recovery...OK

Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Bank of America said the fact that job losses appear to have peaked in January is a positive sign.

"The losses continue to be severe but we do see, and I think the market sees, some apparent peaking in the rate of decline, and that stabilization is providing a little bit of cheer to the market," he said.
"We can't find green shoots of recovery in this report -- though it would not be the first place we'd expect to see them," said IHS Global Insight economist Nigel Gault. "The jobs market will follow rather than lead."

I guess "green shoots of recovery" is the new phrase. Just like "the next 6 months" was for Iraq.

The question is not only how far the economy will fall (although + 10 % unemployment is bad enough), but what type of recovery there will be. There is nothing to indicate that it will be stronger than the debt-ridden, anemic recovery of 2001-2006 - the weakest since World War 2. And, there's the question of a double dip recession after the flurry of stimulus programs subside.

We are still in the early innings of this.

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