Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Andy Xie: The Original Dr. Doom ?

He doesn't find much to be happy about in China's current money lending and printing spree:

"When something seems too good to be true, it is. World trade — the engine of global growth — has collapsed. Employment is still contracting throughout the world. There are no realistic scenarios for the global economy to regain high and sustainable growth.

China is an export-driven economy. Bank lending can support the economy for a short time, however, stocks are as expensive as during the heydays of the last bubble. Like all previous bubbles, this one, too, will burst."


Combine a collapse of China's asset bubbles with the resurgence of 'Maoist'/Centralization tendencies within the Politburo, and there is very plausible scenario in which China retreats from Western globalization. This could be accompanied by a push for a trade and currency bloc, encompassing the historic Chinese sphere of influence in South East Asia.

1"Here We Go Again" - Andy Xie

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