Monday, August 1, 2011

Where Profits Are Coming From

Daniel Gross :

The U.S. stock market isn't a barometer on the U.S. economy any more. The typical member of the S&P 500 already gets about half of its revenues (and almost all its growth) from overseas.

This is a significant historical change that probably requires further attention than is currently given. If the U.S. consumer is no longer indispensable to the world economy, it means the middle class is in for the type of austerity that has been traditionally been doled out to periphery countries.

However, the U.S. continues to run massive current account deficits, indicating that possibly, the U.S. middle class consumer is still quite vital. It is just no longer capable of absorbing the excess aggregate production inherent in a capitalist economy. Which means the system has a mounting debt and fictitious capital problem that is increasing, not decreasing. One would be led to believe there have to be problems in the Chinese banking system in this scenario.

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